Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 6.881495e-05 0.000082 0.000096 0.000113 0.000131 0.000151 0.000174
2025-03-16 5.110302e-05 0.000068 0.000088 0.000113 0.000142 0.000174 0.000214
2025-03-23 4.209740e-05 0.000061 0.000084 0.000114 0.000150 0.000192 0.000244
2025-03-30 3.416118e-05 0.000054 0.000079 0.000113 0.000155 0.000206 0.000271
2025-04-06 2.761624e-05 0.000047 0.000073 0.000110 0.000157 0.000216 0.000292
2025-04-13 2.400895e-05 0.000044 0.000072 0.000112 0.000166 0.000233 0.000322
2025-04-20 1.911250e-05 0.000038 0.000066 0.000108 0.000165 0.000238 0.000336
2025-04-27 1.609055e-05 0.000035 0.000063 0.000107 0.000169 0.000249 0.000358
2025-05-04 1.361878e-05 0.000032 0.000061 0.000107 0.000172 0.000260 0.000380
2025-05-11 1.230988e-05 0.000031 0.000061 0.000110 0.000181 0.000277 0.000411
2025-05-18 1.073060e-05 0.000029 0.000060 0.000111 0.000187 0.000291 0.000436
2025-05-25 8.531705e-06 0.000025 0.000055 0.000107 0.000185 0.000294 0.000448
2025-06-01 6.805866e-06 0.000022 0.000052 0.000105 0.000187 0.000303 0.000469
2025-06-08 5.530374e-06 0.000020 0.000050 0.000105 0.000191 0.000314 0.000494
2025-06-15 4.644352e-06 0.000019 0.000049 0.000106 0.000197 0.000329 0.000523
2025-06-22 3.693703e-06 0.000017 0.000047 0.000105 0.000200 0.000339 0.000545
2025-06-29 2.790114e-06 0.000015 0.000044 0.000102 0.000200 0.000345 0.000562
2025-07-06 2.384291e-06 0.000014 0.000044 0.000104 0.000207 0.000362 0.000595
2025-07-13 1.670364e-06 0.000012 0.000040 0.000100 0.000204 0.000363 0.000606
2025-07-20 1.285861e-06 0.000011 0.000039 0.000099 0.000207 0.000373 0.000629
2025-07-27 9.830343e-07 0.000010 0.000037 0.000099 0.000210 0.000384 0.000652
2025-08-03 8.548903e-07 0.000010 0.000038 0.000102 0.000219 0.000403 0.000689
2025-08-10 6.783607e-07 0.000009 0.000037 0.000103 0.000225 0.000417 0.000718